Brandon Turners Best Bets
Folks we are 3-8 on the year, as it seems our magic from 2015 (19-10-1) has evaporated. This has been a notorious year for betting as many great teams, (Arizona, Green Bay) teams that were expected to take the next step (NYJ, Oakland, Jax) and supposedly awful teams, (Buffalo) have all done the opposite of what was expected. That’s no excuse though and it’s time to turn things around. I’m going to lay out a bevy of picks and see if we can’t adjust and get back in the green now that we know who these teams are. If you want to make this picks count go to http://mybookie.ag/nfl/
(-2.5) Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
The upset that the Dolphins just pulled off against the Steelers is the reason this line is so low, but if we look deeper we see that the Bills are a mismatch for the Dolphins defense. The Bills offense has awoken ever since RB coach Anthony Lynn took over and installed a quick-pace rushing attack that emphasized the team’s strengths: their huge mauling guards, their dual-threat QB who keeps defenses honest, and their star RB Lesean McCoy. This has led to the Bills leading the league in rushing efficiency and the Dolphins are next to last against the run. One thing I would check on is Lesean’s hamstring being healthy before locking in.
(-7) New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
This was probably going to be a blow out even if Roethlisberger played but without him it would take an absolute meltdown from Tom Brady to now win this game by double digits. The NE offense is rolling and Pitt’s backup QBs are some of the worst in the league.
Denver Broncos (-7) vs. Houston Texans
Whooboy it is hard to swallow 7 points with Denver’s offense but Brock Osweiler has just been that bad for the Texans. Throw in that he is facing an insane defense, (that went against him in practice for years) and he’s on the road and I just don’t see a way he generates any offense against Denver. Also Texans CB Kevin Johnson might not be a go, which should be a boon for Denver’s talented receiving corp.
Chicago Bears (+9) at Green Bay Packers
This has the look and feel of a “how could yall ever doubt Aaron Rodgers” type of game but I believe the GB offense has some legitimate problems. Also, as Andre Khatchaturian with NESN pointed out, 14 of the last 19 Bears games have been decided by 7 points or less making the +9 a nice cushion as we hope the Hoyer/Meredith train keeps rolling.