Last week we went a spicy 3-0 to bring our score to bring our score to 22-18-2 on the season. In what will be the final week of most people’s fantasy regular season, week 13 offers us a lot of opportunities where we feel we really understand the teams we’re betting on. We can make money by looking for teams that match up well against other teams weapons and can easily cover large spreads (for example Byron Jones vs Michael Thomas and Jaylon Smith against Kamara pulling off the upset for the Cowboys.) Let’s dive in.
Buffalo Bills (+3) at Miami Dolphins
Josh Allen is starting to get comfortable running this Buffalo offense and is an absolute beast of a specimen at QB. We haven’t seen someone this big AND fast since Cam Newton and he has a bigger arm than Cam. Sure, Allen’s accuracy still needs some work and he has no weapons to throw to but he is a handful for any team to deal with and creates openings for his offense by the mere threat of his arm and legs. The Bills defense on the other hand are well coached and should limit the Dolphins simple offense enough to keep this close. Take the 3 points.
Arizona Cardinals (+14) at Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers are one of the worst coached teams in the league. Their offense is so painfully simple, it’s a cinch for defenses to defend and forces Aaron Rodgers to be perfect on darn near every play. It makes scoring points painful and Roger’s frustration has been evident all season. There are no weapons on offense other than Adams and Patrick Peterson should be able to limit his damage. The Packers defense on the other hand has been well coached by Mike Pettine and has some young talent but with Mike Daniels out I don’t expect them to absolutely dominate the Cardinals. Fourteen points is way too much, even with Aaron Rodgers.
Denver Broncos (-5) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals defense is going to get run all over by Phillip Lindsay. They cannot run defend at all. On the other side of the ball is Jeff Driskel trying to survive the Broncos pass rushers. Joe Mixon will do his best to keep the Bengals in this but I expect the game to get ugly fast. Swallow the 5 points.
Baltimore Ravens (+2) at Atlanta Falcons
We talked about teams that match up well against certain offenses and I expect the Ravens defense is one of them this week. The Falcons have struggled all year long against big defenses that can push them around. The Ravens will clog up running lanes and push the line on both sides of the ball. I expect the Falcons to get worn down and fall behind in the 4th quarter as Lamar’s constant scrambles take their toll. Take the two points.